A systemic analysis of cost overruns in project sales companies

Abstract

Factors that influence the risk of cost overruns in project execution attract the attention of many researchers. However, each study available in the literature focuses its efforts on understanding some factors assessed as relevant in the context of the problem of that study and usually without considering the interactions between factors. This consideration gap can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the potential damage caused by problems that occur throughout the project life cycle, undermining assertiveness in the decision making process and potentially posing additional risk to project performance. The aim of this study is to identify and integrate, in a systemic way, the factors and their causal relationships that influence the risk of execution cost overruns in companies based on project sales. For this, a systematic literature review (SLR) was performed, and the relationships between the identified factors were integrated into a causal diagram through a systemic approach. The results obtained may contribute to a better understanding of the complex system that involves the cost overruns phenomenon and support a more assertive decision making process. In the end, some limitations and possibilities of study sequence are presented as, for example, the development of a cost overruns risk prediction system, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).