Monte Carlo economic and financial feasibility analysis of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation

Abstract

Although technological development promotes greater energy efficiency of equipment and devices, the demand for energy increases with population growth and the search for more comfort and well-being. Sustainable growth comes from low-cost renewable energy sources. The geographical position of Brazil shows a high potential for photovoltaic solar energy favoring distributed generation; however, the initial investments are considered limiting for greater participation in the Brazilian electricity matrix. The aim of this paper is to analyze the economic and financial viability of a photovoltaic system for distributed generation. The scientific methodology for this study considered a real scenario, applying investment analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, using probabilistic distributions for the main input parameters involved in the analysis. The result for the adopted case presented slight project viability, being characterized as the main scientific contribution of the work. Better results will be obtained as the costs of photovoltaic systems become more attractive through economies of scale, technological development and more incentive regulations.